The Two Sides of a Decision: Grit vs Quit
How to avoid the sunk cost effect, a story from Joshua Tree, and electronic tinted sunglasses.
Hello there,
I missed sending out an email last week because our family took a trip to Southern California. We even found ourselves in Joshua Tree, climbing granite formations, and it warmed my soul.
Inspired by sunshine, I tried a few harder climbs, enjoyed the desert landscape, and I even hopped on a surfboard to paddle into larger-than-expected waves (in San Diego, not some kind of wacky sand-desert waves).
Although we didn’t do any costumed climbing, I’ve been loving the decorations all around our neighborhood.
Nothing highlights your surroundings like strolling with a toddler who points at every skeleton and says “Mr. Bones?” I wish you a very spooky season.
The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away
The sunk cost effect is likely familiar to you - the research-backed idea that we make irrational decisions once we’ve invested time, money, or effort into something. What blows me away is the value of that knowledge. Can we Jedi mind-trick our way to better decisions?
I’m reading the best-selling book from pro poker player Annie Duke on how quitting helps you achieve better success (appropriately named Quit). I’m enthralled with all the stories demonstrating how grit (aka persistence) and quit work together for a successful endeavor.
Countless examples show mountaineers who suffer from summit fever and refuse to turn around, often to their demise. One in particular stands out.
Jeffrey Rubin set his sights on climbing the 100 highest peaks in New England and had already completed ninety nine of them. One winter day Jeffrey set off to climb peak number 100 in Fort Mountain, Maine, but a fog settled in during the ascent.
He ignored his partner’s decision to go down, pushing on further into the clouds. He felt the draw to complete his enormous challenge and couldn’t give up.
A few days later climbers found his body - he had taken a deadly fall. What’s surprising is that Jeffrey wrote numerous psychology research papers on the sunk cost effect!
It is not enough to know about a cognitive bias or even to devote decades of research to the topic. But other techniques can improve your ability to quit. One method is to remind yourself that you are playing one long game.
In professional poker, we see an enormous capacity for folding (aka quitting the hand) because the odds just don’t make sense. When Annie Duke hears other poker players lament “Oh, the hand I folded would have won that round!” she responds, “Yeah, you can avoid that if you just play every hand to the last card.”
But the best poker players only play on 15% to 25% of the two card combinations they are dealt. Meanwhile, amateurs play over 50% of the hands they receive.
A good example of walking away comes from Alex Honnold during his path to the record-breaking free solo of El Capitan. In October 2016, with just a few days of good weather remaining, Alex started up the granite route with no rope.
The film crew ascended fixed lines and remote control cameras were in place, but despite the pressure, Alex aborted his attempt part way up saying, “This sucks. I don’t want to be here. I’m over it.”
Clearly, he had crossed some threshold of comfort or confidence, and that decision does not get celebrated enough. One technique Annie Duke describes to make the decision easier is to define “kill criteria.” What conditions would force you to quit this path?
And if you can’t clearly define those criteria, maybe you should reconsider your strategy. At the end of the day, a mountain that you would climb despite life-threatening conditions is not a good place to be.
Worthy & Remarkable
The Dusk RX Kickstarter raised $250k for electronic tinted sunglasses with touch response and features a voice assistant
Another self-cleaning litter box on indiegogo has already raised $450k?! I’ll say this - the Neakasa M1 definitely has some very neat animated GIFs
This uplifting video from Fender features Keanu Reeves playing bass guitars, starting a motorcycle company, and being grateful for “having an idea just seeing something beautiful and trying to bring it out into the world.”
A beautiful film from The North Face (”Firsts”) about the 1st Chinese athlete to run the infamous Western States 100 mile race
Matty Hong Climbs the Historic Biographie (5.15a) and if the music doesn’t pump you up all the shouts of encouragement at the top will!
One Thing from Me
The idea that keeps coming to mind for me is the value of subtraction over addition in problem solving. Humans are hardwired to find solutions by adding, often to our own detriment - "we often overlook better solutions that involve taking stuff away."
Research on the on the signs in Texas calling out the number of traffic deaths showed a surprising result. The fatality count drew people’s attention, but at the cost of safe driving. Looking at the same intersections with and without showed that the signs increased the number of crashes.
I’m putting effort into subtracting one decision each day. Mark Zuckerberg wears the same t-shirt every day?
I’ll go even further. I’ve thrown out all the other kinds of toothpaste. I’m committed to spearmint. Yeah, I know. I’m a maverick.
But maybe you’re not ready to commit to one flavor. A more reasonable step is to find one weekly meeting to remove. Cancel Disney+ Commit to the same Spiderman costume every Halloween!? Ok, maybe not that last one but it’s a worthwhile thought exercise.
Spookily yours,
Jono
PS - the *new* moonwalk looks so much better in the right outfit